*Photo from the Toledo Blade*
Ever since I wrote about potential optimism for baseball fans since MLB was readying a return to play proposal for the 2020 season, things have gotten ugly. Some players were already upset that an agreement on prorated salaries for the 2020 season was agreed on in March, and with the way things have been trending in the last few days, there will be a lockout when MLB and the players association discuss making a new collective bargaining agreement(CBA) when the current one expires after this season.
The players want to know how they are going to be protected if a season will be played this year due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. MLBPA executive board member and St.Louis Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller said that players believe health is paramount this season, and that playing baseball is secondary. There are players with underlying health problems, players family members with underlying health problems, umpires, coaches, and clubhouse staff are in the age bracket that's most at risk of contracting COVID-19. Players want to know the health guidelines for the 2020 season and beyond, and MLB might not have those answers.
The owners are getting cheap. After players already bashed the prorated salary agreement for the 2020 season based on games played, the owners want to ask the players for further salary reductions. This would provoke the players, who are seemingly ready to "go to war" with the league, which is what a lockout is. Labor relations between the players and owners were already tense to begin with, since some believed that in the previous couple of seasons, owners were colluding to drive down player salaries. If the owners continue to insist on more pay cuts, the damage could prove irreparable in terms of a season in 2020.
The owners said that the financial losses would be too steep in their argument. I don't think this is so. Playing games without fans would hurt in terms of gate revenue, but MLB is less reliant on gate revenue than ever. The league earns the majority of their money on radio and TV revenue now, as well as livestream services paying for broadcast rights as well. With no fans in the stands, TV, radio, and livestream viewership would skyrocket, and MLB would make up for the financial losses at the gate easily.
Plus, the players are the people who give the owners their money to begin with, because they draw fans to the games, they draw TV watchers and radio listeners, they are the ones who make baseball's elite richer. If the owners realized how much money the players give them, they will also realize how foolish they are being right now when asking for salary reduction.
It might not be a global pandemic that prevents baseball returning in 2020, but it could be the perfect storm of players vs owners that prevents it. Because of all the ingredients in the pot right now, there will be a lockout in 2021. Count on it.
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